Estimates of global potential for
biomass that can be converted into fuels
vary widely. One recent study concluded
that by 2050, biomass theoretically could
supply 65% of the world’s current
energy consumption, with sub-Saharan Africa,
the Caribbean, and Latin America accounting
for roughly half of this global potential.
In tropical countries, high crop yields
and lower costs for land and labor provide
an economic advantage that is hard for countries
in temperate regions to match.
The potential market demand for ethanol
and biodiesel also varies widely. While
gasoline commands a much larger share of
the market in the U.S. than diesel, diesel
dominates in Europe and is often the preferred
fuel for vehicles in developing countries.
“The gradual move away from
oil has begun. Over the next 15
to 20 years we may see biofuels
providing a full 25% of the world’s
energy needs.”
– Alexander Müller,
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Many countries, in both tropical and temperate
regions, are capable of producing surplus
biomass that can be used for energy. For
example:
Brazil and the
U.S. are the world’s leading producers
of ethanol at more than four billion
gallons a year each – Brazil from
sugar cane, the U.S. from corn.
All Brazilian gasoline must contain
at least 20% ethanol, which is distributed
through a network of more than 25,000
filling stations.
Thanks to its oil, ethanol, and hydroelectric
resources, Brazil expected to become
self-sufficient in energy in 2006, and
its ethanol producers say they can compete
with oil at $30 a barrel.
Brazil is also rapidly developing its
biodiesel industry and was a pioneer
in introducing flexible-fuel cars, which
can run on E100, gasoline, or any mix
in between. In the first half of 2006,
more than 80% of all new cars sold in
Brazil were FFVs.
Roughly a million cars a year are sold
in Brazil.
Europe is the
world’s largest producer of biodiesel,
which it makes principally from rapeseed
(canola), soy, and sunflower seeds.
In 2005, Europe produced nearly a billion
gallons of biodiesel (a 65% increase
from 2004), about half from Germany
alone. Ethanol represented just 20%
of the biofuels market.
China produced
about 340 million gallons of ethanol
in 2005, most of it from corn.
Several provinces have developed E10
blending and refueling infrastructure.
The Chinese government is now encouraging
ethanol production from non-grain sources
such as cassava, sweet sorghum, and
sweet potato, and it is supporting R&D
into cellulosic ethanol.
Plans for increased
biofuels production are also advancing
in Latin America (including Colombia
and Peru), Asia (India, Thailand, Malaysia,
and Australia), Africa (especially South
Africa but possibly also Zimbabwe, Madagascar,
Malawi, and Mozambique), and Eastern
Europe (Romania, Ukraine, and Russia).
For example:
The Indian
government has identified nearly
100 million acres of land where
jatropha can be grown as a biofuel
and hopes to replace 20% of diesel
consumption in five years.
Malaysia,
the world’s top producer of
palm oil, has approved licenses
for 52 biodiesel plants with a combined
capacity of 1.5 billion gallons
a year.
(However, the destruction of tropical
forests for palm cultivation is
a major environmental concern.)
The Australian
government has set a target of producing
nearly 100 million gallons of
ethanol annually by 2010.
Biomass
provides a surprisingly large amount of
the world’s energy – 10% of
total global primary energy consumption
– but most of that is wood and charcoal
gathered and used in the most primitive
ways,
as shown at right.
More than 2.4 billion people, generally
among the world’s poorest, rely directly
on wood, crop residues, dung, and other
biomass fuels for their heating and cooking
needs.
In rural sub-Saharan Africa, women carry
on average 11 pounds of wood 3 miles every
day to meet their household needs for fuel.
Burning this biomass in inefficient stoves
or over open flames is in many cases the
only way to stay warm or cook a meal –
but such stoves are a health and safety
hazard. The smoke inhaled while cooking
is responsible for more than 1.6 million
deaths annually, mostly among women and
children.
More than half of these deaths occur among
children under five years of age. In developing
countries with high mortality rates overall,
indoor air pollution ranks eighth in terms
of the risk factors that contribute to disease
and death.
Moving away from these dirty uses of biomass
is a clear public health priority.
Back to top Oil
fuels the transportation sector everywhere,
and in many parts of the world it is also
used for space heating and power generation.
As the price of oil has risen, this dependence
has caused heavy economic burdens. Ten years
ago, when the world agreed on debt relief
for the poorest countries in sub-Saharan
Africa, the price of oil was $22 a barrel.
Over the last four years, the price has
tripled. As shown on the previous page,
higher oil prices (calculated at $60 per
barrel) now cost Ethiopia, for example,
nearly five times as much as it is gaining
from debt relief.
Back to top Sustainable
biofuel development can help bring modern
energy services to more people, particularly
in rural areas. It can also foster greater
investment in agriculture, which employs
75% of the world’s poor. It can create
new job opportunities in rural areas and
provide a major new source of income for
farmers.
By producing transportation fuel, farmers
will be entering a market with higher prices
and rising demand. Growing energy crops
is more likely to attract the kind of foreign
investment that can modernize their agricultural
practices – and increase their food
production as well.
The Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
notes these benefits as well: “Energy
plantations and crops (in particular perennial
crops) can help to prevent soil erosion
by providing a cover which reduces rainfall
impact and sediment transport. Annual energy
crops can also allow diversification and
expansion of crop rotations. Deforested,
degraded and marginal land could be rehabilitated
as bioenergy plantations which could combat
desertification and increase food production.”
Micro
example: Biodiesel produced from jatropha
nuts was used in Mali to provide affordable,
decentralized energy services, fueling engines
that could power other equipment or support
a mini-grid for lighting, refrigeration,
and electric pumps for small water distribution
networks or irrigation systems. A jatropha
hedge in Mali is shown at right.
This project increased annual income per
participating woman from about $40 to $100
and freed two to six hours of her time per
day. Villages experienced higher levels
of schooling for girls, who were no longer
pulled out of school to assist their mothers
with household chores. The project also
stimulated micro-level business activities
for village men in blacksmithing, carpentry,
and mechanics.
Macro example: In Brazil ethanol
production has created an estimated one
million jobs and reduced the cost of oil
imports by $43.5 billion between 1976 and
2000.
Back to top If carried
out on a large scale, the increased use
of agricultural resources for energy will
have the effect of raising the prices of
most commodity crops and reducing the need
for subsidies – with particular benefit
for producers of commodity crops in developing
countries. An analysis by researchers at
the University of Tennessee found that increased
demand for energy crops would all but eliminate
the need for price-based support payments
for most crops in the U.S.
In other words, an aggressive program of
bioenergy development would lead to reductions
in government support to farmers without
any loss of income.
In the industrialized world, the problem
in agriculture is not one of shortage but
overproduction – which is why there
are perennial surpluses. Excess crops are
shipped overseas, where they end up undercutting
and impoverishing farmers in the developing
world, who cannot compete with subsidized
crops from abroad.
Negotiations in the Doha Development Round
of the World Trade Organization broke down
in 2006 because of disputes over agricultural
subsidies. If governments took steps to
raise biofuels production to 15% or more
of global petroleum demand, the global market
in agriculture could double or triple in
volume and value. That would create a win-win
situation for all involved, and the subsidy
issue would diminish in importance.
Back to top According to the Food and Agriculture
Organization of the United Nations (FAO),
increased food production can keep pace
with a growing global population. In a 2002
report, FAO observed:
In recent years the growth rates of
world agricultural production and crop yields
have slowed. This has raised fears that
the world may not be able to grow enough
food and other commodities to ensure that
future populations are adequately fed. However,
the slowdown has occurred not because of
shortages of land or water but rather because
demand for agricultural products has also
slowed. This is mainly because world population
growth rates have been declining since the
late 1960s, and fairly high levels of food
consumption per person are now being reached
in many countries, beyond which further
rises will be limited. But it is also the
case that a stubbornly high share of the
world’s population remains in absolute
poverty and so lacks the necessary income
to translate its needs into effective demand.
On a global scale, malnutrition is caused
not by a lack of food but by a failure to
distribute it or a lack of money to pay
for it. And certainly poverty, especially
in urban areas, is exacerbated by rapid
population growth.
Agriculture remains the main activity in
the developing world. The world’s
farmers are fully capable of increasing
the amount they produce, but, in order for
this to happen, demand must increase.
Poverty reduces global food demand and acts
as a brake on food production. Most of the
world’s poorest people live in rural
areas and work the land.
Increased demand for agricultural products
thus would mean more farm income and less
poverty, more productive agriculture, more
food, more rural economic development, and
reduced migration to cities.
Many developing countries still have a significant
quantity of land available that is well
adapted to rain-fed crops – about
as much as now is being farmed (over 1.7
billion acres). These lands do not include
areas inhabited by human beings, forests,
or protected areas.
If a country can produce and export biofuels,
it will have a stronger economy and more
resources to address the needs of the poor.
Africa, with its significant sugar cane
production potential, is often cited as
a region that could profit from Brazil’s
experience and technology, although obstacles
to realizing it (infrastructure, institutional,
etc.) should not be underestimated.
According to the FAO, in developing countries
almost 70% of future increases in crop production
will come from higher yields, around 20%
from an expansion of arable land, and around
10% from multiple cropping and shorter fallow
periods. Some regions will face serious
water shortages, and they will need to use
water more efficiently, as agriculture represents
about 70% of all fresh water consumed by
humans. Appropriately regulated genetically
modified crop varieties could help to sustain
farming in marginal areas and to restore
degraded lands to production.
Biomass
provides a surprisingly large amount of
the world’s energy – 10% of
total global primary energy consumption
– but most of that is wood and charcoal
gathered and used in the most primitive
ways
Micro
example: Biodiesel produced from jatropha
nuts was used in Mali to provide affordable,
decentralized energy services, fueling engines
that could power other equipment or support
a mini-grid for lighting, refrigeration,
and electric pumps for small water distribution
networks or irrigation systems. A jatropha
hedge in Mali is shown at right.
